Anthony Giddens’ Rough Guide to Saving the World
A large crowd gathered at the Thomas Paine Lecture Theatre, University of East Anglia, in Norwich, Norfolk, United Kingdom, to listen to Professor Lord Anthony Giddens speak about the pressing issue of climate change. Giddens, a renowned sociologist, political advisor, and author, shared his insights on this global challenge's sociological and political aspects. His lecture, part of the "The too difficult box" series organised by the School of Political, Social and International Studies, explored the obstacles that make solutions to seemingly intractable issues challenging and how well-conducted politics might address those difficulties.
Anthony Giddens speaking at an event.
The Unique Nature of Climate Change
Giddens began by emphasising that climate change is unlike any other problem humanity has faced before for three key reasons:
Unprecedented Impact: No other civilisation has affected the global environment on the same scale as we have in the last 200 years, making it impossible to draw lessons from the past. The Industrial Revolution and the subsequent exponential growth in human population, consumption, and technological advancement have led to an unparalleled impact on the Earth's climate system.
Scientific Complexity: The evidence for climate change is filtered through the findings of specialist scientific groups, creating a vast gap between climatologists and the lay public, which is bridged by the politics of climate change. The complex nature of climate science and the inherent uncertainties associated with climate models and projections make it challenging for the general public to grasp the magnitude of the problem entirely.
Cumulative and Urgent: Climate change is cumulative, with its effects increasing over time and not being felt until the future. The long-lasting lifespan of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere adds to the urgency of this problem, potentially making it more important than all others. The delayed impact of our actions makes it difficult for people to appreciate the severity of the situation and act with the necessary urgency.
Risks and Perspectives on Climate Change
Giddens categorised people's views on the risks of climate change into three groups:
Climate Change Skeptics: Those who deny that climate change is happening or attribute the observed temperature increase to natural causes rather than human activity. Most sceptics are not scientists, and even fewer are climatologists. The political impact of sceptics is significant, as demonstrated by the "climate gate" incident involving hacked emails from the University of East Anglia. The blogosphere's role in amplifying the voices of sceptics and creating a world where anyone can become an "expert" without the necessary skills has contributed to the spread of misinformation and the polarization of the debate.
Mainstream Scientific Opinion: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, which link climate change to fossil fuel use and deforestation, represent the mainstream scientific view. The IPCC's projections typically extend 20-30 years into the future and are based on a rigorous assessment of the available scientific evidence. The IPCC's findings have been instrumental in shaping the global understanding of climate change and its potential impacts.
Climate Change Radicals: Heterodox figures, such as James Lovelock and James Hanson, believe that climate change is happening faster than generally accepted and that the Earth is more susceptible to small temperature changes. They emphasise the concept of tipping points, where sudden and significant degradation occurs, such as the potential melting of the Siberian permafrost and the release of large deposits of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. While not representing the mainstream scientific consensus, these radical views highlight the potential for catastrophic consequences if action is not taken to mitigate climate change.
The Politics of Climate Change Giddens highlighted that the politics of climate change revolve around risk and the debate over whether the risks are over- or under-calculated. He believes that the radicals are more likely to be correct than the sceptics and that climate change poses an existential threat to the continuity of industrial civilisation. The current argument is whether the risks are adequately addressed, with some, like the IPCC, being considered "climate conservative." In contrast, others, like the radicals, argue that the Earth is a volatile system that reacts in extreme ways to even small temperature changes.
Climate-Related Policy
A Brief History Over the last 30 years, the world has become increasingly aware of the dangers of climate change, with various international meetings and agreements, such as Rio, Kyoto, Copenhagen, and Cancun. However, the political response has been inadequate, as human beings find it difficult to take a risk seriously if it is not immediately visible. Politicians often resort to rhetoric that echoes the general public's indifference, finding it more accessible to speak about actions in the distant future rather than the present.
The Kyoto Protocol, signed in 1997, was the first international agreement to set binding emissions reduction targets for industrialised countries. However, its impact was negligible primarily, as several vital emitters, such as the United States, did not ratify the agreement. The Copenhagen Accord reached in 2009, was a non-binding agreement that ignored geopolitical realities and failed to deliver the necessary commitments to reduce emissions. The Cancun Agreements reached in 2010 saw 150 countries set emissions reduction targets, with China presenting a climate change plan and Brazil demonstrating its commitment to renewable energy. Despite these efforts, the timescales involved in addressing climate change remain a significant challenge, as the effects of our actions today will continue accumulating and impacting the climate system for decades.
The Politics of Climate Change in Industrial Nations Giddens emphasised three key points regarding the politics of climate change in industrial nations:
The need for politics of the long term, integrated with recovery from recession and coping with the impacts of extreme weather while protecting the poorest people in front-line countries. This requires shifting away from short-term thinking and creating policies addressing climate change's causes and consequences. Innovative solutions, such as collaboration between governments and private insurance companies to provide "catastrophe bonds" and the development of micro-credit and floating agriculture in countries like Bangladesh, can help build resilience and adapt to the impacts of climate change.
Limiting political polarisation is crucial, as climate change should not be a matter of left vs. right. The United States, Canada, and Australia, which have the highest emissions per person, are also politically polarised on this issue. The recent healthcare debate in the United States demonstrated the extent of this polarisation, with only 11% of Republicans and 60% of Democrats believing in climate change. Overcoming this polarisation is crucial for developing and implementing effective climate policies.
It is necessary to present a positive model of a low-carbon economy, as climate change can seem abstract without an immediate impact on people's lives. Giddens argues that a good model of a low-carbon economy with a positive message is essential for engaging the public and driving the necessary changes. He cites the example of electric cars, which, while relatively uninteresting, represent the potential for transforming the transport system and reducing emissions.
The Role of Emerging Economies
Giddens concluded by emphasising the need for a structural revolution within the fossil fuel industry and the importance of countries like China and India not following the historical development path of Western nations. Chinese leaders are aware of the need to change and transform their economy and society, but the scale of the challenge is immense. The concept of "utopian realism" – the idea that we must pursue ambitious goals while remaining grounded in reality – is paradoxical but necessary for addressing climate change.
The transformation of the transport system, as highlighted by the potential of electric cars and the "mobility internet" described in the book "The Future of the Automobile" by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), is just one example of the kind of structural changes required to address climate change. Giddens also touched on the role of the London School of Economics (LSE), which was founded by the Fabians, a group of "kind of socialists," and the famous disagreement between George Bernard Shaw and Winston Churchill, highlighting the long history of debate and controversy surrounding social and political change.
Anthony Giddens' lecture provided a comprehensive sociological perspective on the complexities and challenges of addressing climate change, emphasising the need for long-term thinking, political consensus, and a positive vision of a sustainable future. He argued that climate change presents a unique challenge that requires a fundamental shift in our political, economic, and social systems. The risks of inaction far outweigh the costs of taking bold and decisive action. While the path forward is not easy, Giddens' insights provide a valuable framework for understanding climate change's sociological and political dimensions and the steps we must take to build a more sustainable and resilient world.